刘红亮, 贾洪文, 王雁, 刘彬, 姚洁, 闫宣辰. 新型冠状病毒肺炎初期传播规模的系统动力学模型估计方法及评价———以甘肃省为例的研究[J]. 电子科技大学学报社科版, 2020, 22(3): 36-45. DOI: 10.14071/j.1008-8105(2020)-3023
引用本文: 刘红亮, 贾洪文, 王雁, 刘彬, 姚洁, 闫宣辰. 新型冠状病毒肺炎初期传播规模的系统动力学模型估计方法及评价———以甘肃省为例的研究[J]. 电子科技大学学报社科版, 2020, 22(3): 36-45. DOI: 10.14071/j.1008-8105(2020)-3023
LIU Hong-liang, JIA Hong-wen, WANG Yan, LIU Bin, YAO Jie, YAN Xuan-chen. Estimation Method and Evaluation of System Dynamics Model for the Initial Spread of COVID-19———A case study of Gansu Province[J]. Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China(SOCIAL SCIENCES EDITION), 2020, 22(3): 36-45. DOI: 10.14071/j.1008-8105(2020)-3023
Citation: LIU Hong-liang, JIA Hong-wen, WANG Yan, LIU Bin, YAO Jie, YAN Xuan-chen. Estimation Method and Evaluation of System Dynamics Model for the Initial Spread of COVID-19———A case study of Gansu Province[J]. Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China(SOCIAL SCIENCES EDITION), 2020, 22(3): 36-45. DOI: 10.14071/j.1008-8105(2020)-3023

新型冠状病毒肺炎初期传播规模的系统动力学模型估计方法及评价—以甘肃省为例的研究

Estimation Method and Evaluation of System Dynamics Model for the Initial Spread of COVID-19—A case study of Gansu Province

  • 摘要:
    目的/意义新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情是新中国成立以来传播速度快、感染范围广、防控难度大的一次重大突发公共卫生事件。疫情暴发后,我国各级政府采取积极防控措施,有效控制了疫情传播。面对新冠肺炎传染性强、无症状感染者多、罹患重症致死率高的特点,如何在疫情暴发早期科学判定病毒传播路径及感染规模非常重要。
    设计/方法利用甘肃省首次发现确诊病例以来最初8天的公开通报数据,构建了基于系统动力学的新冠肺炎患者变动分析模型,对甘肃省首例确诊患者出现后连续20天内的确诊患者数量变动进行合理估计和预判,以期为相关防控措施实施提供参考。
    结论/发现通过分析比较,该分析模型对疫情暴发初期的传播规律具有较强的适用性,对相关国家或存在感染的地区估计传播规模有较高的参考价值。

     

    Abstract: Purpose/Significance COVID-19 epidemic is a major public health emergency that has occurred in China since the founding of New China, with rapid spread, wide range of infections, and difficulty in prevention and control. After the outbreak, the governments at all levels in China took active prevention and control measures to effectively control the spread of the outbreak. In view of the characteristics of COVID-19, which is highly contagious, has many asymptomatic infections, and has a high fatality rate, how to scientifically determine the virus transmission path and infection scale in the early stage of the outbreak is very important. Design/Methods This article uses the public notification data in the first 8 days since the first confirmed cases were found in Gansu Province to construct a COVID-19 patient movement analysis model based on system dynamics. The changes in the number of confirmed patients are reasonably estimated and predicted to provide a reference for the implementation of related prevention and control measures. Findings/Conclusion Through analysis and comparison, the analysis model has a strong applicability to the spreading rules in the initial stage of the outbreak, and has a high reference value for the estimated spreading scale in related countries or areas with infection.

     

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