梁龙跃, 陈家驹. 基于广义方差分解的我国金融部门风险传染效应研究[J]. 电子科技大学学报社科版, 2020, 22(1): 70-78. DOI: 10.14071/j.1008-8105(2019)-1113
引用本文: 梁龙跃, 陈家驹. 基于广义方差分解的我国金融部门风险传染效应研究[J]. 电子科技大学学报社科版, 2020, 22(1): 70-78. DOI: 10.14071/j.1008-8105(2019)-1113
LIANG Long-yue, CHEN Jia-ju. Research on Risk Contagion Effect of Financial Sector in China Based on Generalized Variance Decomposition[J]. Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China(SOCIAL SCIENCES EDITION), 2020, 22(1): 70-78. DOI: 10.14071/j.1008-8105(2019)-1113
Citation: LIANG Long-yue, CHEN Jia-ju. Research on Risk Contagion Effect of Financial Sector in China Based on Generalized Variance Decomposition[J]. Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China(SOCIAL SCIENCES EDITION), 2020, 22(1): 70-78. DOI: 10.14071/j.1008-8105(2019)-1113

基于广义方差分解的我国金融部门风险传染效应研究

Research on Risk Contagion Effect of Financial Sector in China Based on Generalized Variance Decomposition

  • 摘要:
    目的/意义以我国金融业各个部门为研究对象,从动态关联性角度出发研究各部门间的金融风险传染效应。
    设计/方法首先运用广义方差分解方法构建静态关联度矩阵,确定各个部门关联度的方向及强度,随后通过滚动窗口预测方法测算金融市场各个部门的动态关联度,刻画各部门的风险传染网络。
    结论/发现研究发现:1. 我国金融部门之间有显著的关联性;2. 极端事件的发生能够加强我国金融部门间的联动性;3. 金融部门之间的风险传染网络具有动态关联性。

     

    Abstract:
    Purpose/SignificanceTaking the various departments of China's financial industry as the research object, this paper studies the financial risk contagion effect among various departments from the perspective of dynamic relevance.
    Design/MethodologyFirstly, the generalized variance decomposition method is used to construct the static relevance degree matrix, and the direction and intensity of the correlation degree of each department are determined. Then, the dynamic correlation degree of each department in the financial market is measured by the rolling window prediction method, and the risk infection network of each department is described.
    Findings/ConclusionThe study found that: 1. There is a significant correlation between our financial sectors; 2. The occurrence of extreme events can strengthen the linkage between China's financial sectors; 3. The risk contagion network between financial sectors is dynamically linked.

     

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