风险情境下电网企业OFDI的多阶段组合优化研究基于解释结构模型

Research on Multi-stage Portfolio Optimization of OFDI in Grid Enterprises Under Risk ContextsBased on Interpretative Structural Model

  • 摘要: 随着我国能源行业积极贯彻“走出去”战略,系统评估和优化“一带一路”倡议下中国企业对外直接投资(OFDI)策略显得尤为重要。鉴于OFDI环境的复杂性,本文通过深入分析电网企业的OFDI项目,从风险管理视角构建电网企业对外投资风险评价体系,同时运用解释结构模型(ISM)识别和整理关键风险,构建多阶段组合优化模型以实现风险最小化和收益最大化目标,并运用动态规划算法求解风险不确定性条件下的最优投资组合。案例分析验证了模型的有效性,并确定了最优投资策略。本研究构建了一类电网企业对外投资的最优组合策略,扩展了企业OFDI领域的理论研究,同时为国内能源企业的国际化战略提供了理论和实践参考,有助于推动构建国内国际“双循环”新发展格局。

     

    Abstract: As China’s energy industry actively implements its “Going Global” strategy, systematically evaluating and optimizing the Overseas Foreign Direct Investment (OFDI) strategies under the Belt and Road initiative is increasingly crucial. Given the complexity of the OFDI environment, this paper conducts an in-depth analysis of OFDI projects by grid enterprises. It builds a risk evaluation system from the perspective of risk management and utilizes Interpretative Structural Model (ISM) to identify and organize key risks. A multi-stage portfolio optimization model is developed to minimize risks and maximize returns. This model employs dynamic programming to solve the optimal investment portfolio under conditions of risk uncertainty. Case studies validate the effectiveness of the model and establish the optimal investment strategy. This research constructs an optimal investment strategy for grid enterprises’ international ventures, extends the theoretical study of corporate OFDI, and provides both theoretical and practical guidance for the internationalization strategies of domestic energy companies. This contributes to promoting a new dual circulation development pattern both domestically and internationally.

     

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