Abstract: Based on the 2008～2022 panel data of 30 provinces combined with the intermediary effect model, this paper systematically interprets the mechanism of agricultural insurance to promote the upgrading of agricultural industry through dual-scale operation. The results show that dual-scale management is an effective intermediary for agricultural insurance to promote agricultural industry upgrading, Agricultural insurance is policy-oriented, providing capital and technical support to farmers, guiding land and service dual scale management, and producing scale effect. The guarantee of agricultural insurance can improve the risk resistance ability of farmers, expand the dual-scale operation mode, promote the integrated development of industries, promote the upgrading of agricultural industry, and generate incentive effect. Further analysis shows that the effect of agricultural insurance is heterogeneous due to the difference of farmers’ agricultural technology level and management ability, and the promoting effect of agricultural insurance on agricultural industry upgrading is more significant in areas with higher agricultural technology level and farmers’ concurrent occupation level. In addition, agricultural insurance is conducive to achieving the multi-dimensional development goals of optimizing agricultural ecology and improving farmers’ lives.