人口老龄化对收入再分配效应的影响研究

Research on the Impact of Population Aging on Income Redistribution

  • 摘要: 文章实证检验了人口老龄化对收入再分配政策效果的影响。研究发现:再分配政策优化收入分配格局的能力逐年增强,转移支付的收入再分配效应大幅优于个人所得税。基准回归表明,人口老龄化通过扩大再分配政策规模强化了收入再分配效应,人口老龄化程度每上升1个百分点,再分配效应上升0.682个百分点。进一步分析发现,人口老龄化对个人所得税的收入再分配效应影响不显著,但对转移支付特别是养老保险制度的收入再分配效应增强作用明显。异质性分析发现,人口老龄化的这一作用在经济发达的城市中更为显著。但是人口老龄化同时也会强化收入再分配政策特别是具有城镇偏向性的养老保险制度等政策扩大城乡收入差距的作用。研究结果对政府在人口老龄化加速深化的背景下制定科学合理的再分配政策、实现共同富裕具有至关重要的意义。

     

    Abstract: This paper empirically studies the impact of population aging on the effectiveness of income redistribution policies. Research findings show that the ability of redistribution policies to optimize the income distribution pattern has been increasing year by year, and the income redistribution effect of transfer payments is significantly better than that of individual income tax. Benchmark regression indicates that population aging has strengthened the income redistribution effect by expanding the scale of redistribution policies. For every 1 percentage point increase in the degree of population aging, the redistribution effect increases by 0.682 percentage points. Further analysis reveals that population aging has no significant impact on the income redistribution effect of personal income tax, but it significantly enhances the income redistribution effect of transfer payments, especially the pension insurance system. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the effect of population aging is more significant in economically developed cities. However, population aging will also strengthen the role of income redistribution policies, especially policies with urban bias such as the endowment insurance system, in widening the income gap between urban and rural areas. The research results are of vital significance for the government to formulate scientific and reasonable redistribution policies and achieve common prosperity in the context of the accelerating deepening of population aging.

     

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