生育率波动对公共养老金制度设计的影响

The Effect of Fertility Fluctuation on Public Pension System Design

  • 摘要: 为探究生育率波动及其相关因素变化对我国公共养老金制度设计的影响,文章在世代交叠一般均衡模型中引入生育率随机波动、公共教育制度及资本流动三大因素,通过考虑固定缴费率与固定受益率的公共养老金制度不同组合,旨在寻找生育率波动情况下有利于公共养老金制度可持续运行的调整方案。研究结果表明,在存在生育率随机波动的情况下,对于资本流动性较低的封闭经济而言,固定受益率公共养老金制度比固定缴费率公共养老金制度更受欢迎。对于资本流动性较高的开放经济而言,还需要考虑公共教育制度类型的影响,如果公共教育制度为固定受益率,则固定缴费率公共养老金制度比固定受益率公共养老金制度更受欢迎,而且在这种情况下,公共养老金制度设计不受生育率波动的影响。

     

    Abstract: In order to deal with the effect that fertility rate fluctuation brings with pay-as-you-go pension system, with the introduction of education financing and capital flow, considering the fertility rate under the condition of random fluctuations fixed benefit payment rate and fixed contrbution rate various combinations of pension system, to find a pay-as-you-go pension system sustainable running the best adjustment scheme. This paper extends the three-period computable general equilibrium model, and explores the impact of fertility fluctuations on pension system design under different degrees of capital mobility based on a given education system. The results show that defined-benefit pension systems are more popular than defined-contribution pension systems for closed economies with low capital mobility. However, for an open economy with high capital mobility, if the education system has a fixed benefit rate, the fixed contribution rate pension system is more popular than the fixed benefit rate pension system, and in this case, the choice of pension system is not affected by fertility fluctuations.

     

/

返回文章
返回