绿色研发、碳减排补贴与碳排放“双控”政策组合基于DSGE模型的数值模拟分析

Green R&D, Carbon Emission Reduction Subsidies, and the Dual-Control Policy Mix for Carbon EmissionsA Numerical Simulation Based on DSGE Model

  • 摘要: 打好政策“组合拳”,增强政策合力是健全宏观经济治理体系的重要议题。论文在内生研发框架下,通过构建包含居民、厂商(包含绿色研发厂商、非绿色研发厂商)和政府部门的动态随机一般均衡模型,研究政府绿色研发补贴、碳减排补贴和环境治理投资三项绿色政策冲击对碳排放总量、碳排放强度、总产出等宏观经济变量的影响,并着重进行碳排放“双控”政策组合研究。模拟分析发现:(1)三项政策对社会总产出存在短期负向、长期正向效应,绿色研发补贴对社会总产出的正向峰值效应最为明显。(2)环境治理投资和碳减排补贴仅在短期内抑制碳排放总量,其带来的产出效应在长期内会增加碳排放总量,这时需要组合绿色研发补贴政策来协同减排。(3)三项政策都能够降低碳排放强度,但从效果上看,绿色研发补贴是最有效的方法,而政府环境治理投资和减排补贴对碳排放强度的影响甚微。加大绿色研发补贴鼓励绿色研发是实现碳排放总量与碳排放强度“双控”最为有利的政策工具。(4)三项绿色政策对主要宏观经济变量的影响存在挤出效应,但政策的合理组合,可以兼顾经济增长、碳排放总量强度双控以及生态环境质量改善。根据研究结论,提出碳减排补贴不应该成为长期政策,政府应该合理组合环境治理投资和绿色研发补贴两种政策等相关建议。

     

    Abstract: Developing well-coordinated policy measures to enhance policy synergy is the key to improving the macro-economic governance system. Under the endogenous R&D framework, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model was constructed. The model included residents, manufacturers (including green R&D manufacturers and non-green R&D manufacturers), and government departments to study the impact of three green policy shocks, namely government green R&D subsidies, carbon emission reduction subsidies, and environmental governance investments, on environmental and economic variables such as total carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity. The study focused on the combination of carbon emission “dual control” policies. Simulation analysis found that: (1) three green policies had short-term negative and long-term positive effects on total social output, and the win-win goal of growth, carbon reduction, synergy and efficiency improvement could be achieved. Moreover, green R&D subsidies had the most significant positive peak effect on total social output. (2) Environmental governance investment and carbon reduction subsidies only suppressed the total carbon emissions in the short term, and their output effects would increase the total carbon emissions in the long term. At this time, it was necessary to coordinate with green research and development subsidy policies to reduce carbon emissions. (3) The government’s three green policies could all reduce carbon emission intensity, but in terms of effectiveness, green R&D subsidies was the most effective method, while government environmental governance investment and emission reduction subsidies had little impact on carbon emission intensity. Increasing subsidies for green research and development to encourage green research and development was the most favorable policy tool for achieving dual control of carbon emissions and carbon intensity. (4) The three green policies had a crowding out effect on the main macroeconomic variables, but a reasonable combination of policies could balance economic growth, dual control of carbon emission intensity, and improvement of ecological environment quality. According to the research findings, it was suggested that carbon emission reduction subsidies should not become a long-term policy, and the government should reasonably match the two policies of environmental governance investment and green research and development subsidies.

     

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