人口老龄化影响新质生产力发展:理论机制与经验证据

The Impact of Population Aging on the Development of New Quality Productivity: Theoretical Mechanisms and Empirical Evidence

  • 摘要: 人口老龄化是经济社会发展必须面对的重大课题,发展新质生产力是实现高质量发展的关键所在。文章使用2012~2022年30个省份的面板数据,从新型劳动者、新型劳动资料、新型劳动对象三个维度构建了新质生产力水平测算指标体系,实证分析人口老龄化对发展新质生产力的影响。研究表明:(1)人口老龄化加深对新质生产力有负面影响,老年抚养比每上升1单位,新质生产力水平下降0.473单位,这一结论在经过多种稳健性检验和内生性处理后依然成立;(2)人口老龄化对发展新质生产力的影响具有异质性,其负面影响主要体现在东北、西北以及经济发展水平较高地区;(3)新型劳动者和新型劳动资料两个维度是人口老龄化影响新质生产力发展的主要渠道;(4)新质生产力具有显著的正向空间溢出效应,但人口老龄化会对邻近地区的新质生产力发展产生负向的空间溢出影响。文章从理论和实证两个层面揭示了人口老龄化对发展新质生产力的影响,以期为积极应对人口老龄化、发展新质生产力提供更为丰富的经验证据和决策参考。

     

    Abstract: Population aging is a major topic that economic and social development has to face, and developing new quality productive forces is the key to achieving high-quality development. Employing the panel data from 30 provinces 2012~2022, this article constructs an indicator system for measuring the level of new quality productivity from three dimensions: new workers, new means of labor, and new subjects of labor. It empirically analyzes the impact of population aging on the development of new quality productivity. Research indicates that: (1) the accelerating population aging has a negative impact on new quality productivity. For every 1 unit increase in the elderly dependency ratio, the level of new quality productivity will decrease by 0.473 units. This result is still valid after multiple robustness tests and endogeneity treatments. (2) The impact of population aging on the development of new quality productivity is heterogeneous, and its negative effects are mainly reflected in the Northeast, Northwest and regions with higher levels of economic development. (3) The two dimensions of new workers and new means of labor are the main channels through which population aging affect the development of new quality productivity. (4) The new quality productivity has significant positive spatial spillover effects, but population aging will have negative spatial spillover effects on the development of new quality productivity in neighboring areas. The article reveals the impact of population aging on the development of new quality productivity from both theoretical and empirical perspectives, so as to provide richer empirical evidence and decision-making references for actively responding to population aging and developing new quality productivity.

     

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