Abstract:
This paper founds a system dynamics model of real estate market, and then gets a mathematic equation that describes the real estate cycle using real estate price as indicator variable. The real estate cycle of china is studied by time series theory on the basis of this equation. Our study shows that there is only one inherent cycle in Chinese real estate market and its length is 3.4 years. The concept of the inherent drive process and the inherent restrain process of Chinese real estate market are put forward and their features are analyzed. The relation of the two processes and the macro-control policies for real estate market are also analyzed.