中成药企业需求预测分析

Forecast of the Demand for a Chinese Medicine Enterprise

  • 摘要: 需求预测是供应链管理一个重要组成部分,根据中成药零售商的销售量和订单量,建立了自回归综合移动平均季节模型(SARIMA模型)和时间序列神经网络模型,预测市场需求。结果显示:当预测只考虑销售量时,神经网络预测较佳;当考虑销售量和订单量,并用基于时间序列神经网络预测时,预测效果较只考虑销售量时差。最后提出了供应链上游企业在进行需求预测时除了考虑下游企业销售数量,还应考虑订单数,并且需要下游企业在制定订单数时应科学合理

     

    Abstract: The demand forecast is one of the most important parts in supply chains. This paper builds both SARIMA and time series neural network models, and forecasts the demand based on historical sales and order quantities from a Chinese medicine enterprise. The result shows us that when we consider data with sales quantities only, time series neural network model has better forecast ability than SARIMA model. However, when we consider those with both sales and order quantities, it has worse forecast ability than that with sales quantities only. Finally, it presents that the upper enterprise in the supply chain should consider not only the sale quantities of the lower enterprise but also sales quantities, and it suggests that the lower enterprise should rationally and scientifically make an order

     

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