中国工商银行的海外布局
——基于实物期权视角的案例分析

Overseas Strategic Layout of ICBC ——Case Studies Based on Real Options Perspective

摘要: 用实物期权方法分析银行的海外扩张面临许多困难，困难之一就是未来的投资机会难以甄别。通过检视工商银行20年来的海外扩张进程，提炼出三种典型投资机会，指出了其具有的期权特性，并结合“期权链”进行了分析，阐释了实物期权理论如何作用于工商银行的海外布局战略。目前，众多中资银行都处于海外扩张的初级阶段，实物期权方法可以给其海外战略提供分析框架，有助于其战略的制定和执行。

Abstract: Strategic investment is always regarded as a high-risk and long-period behavior. The real option theory, which takes the value of investment opportunities into consideration, is an appropriate method in analyzing the strategic investment. To discuss how the real options theory can be applied in ICBC’s overseas layout strategy, we investigate its overseas expansion process during the past 20 years in the perspective of real options theory, conclude three typical investment opportunities, and analyze their option characteristics with “option chains”.