Kermack-Mckendrick Model of Informational Spreading in Environmental Pollution Incident

In the period of social transition in China, all types of mass incidents of environmental pollution occurred frequently. Based on the threshold of mass incidents of environmental pollution information transmission features and types and using the Kermack Mckendrick epidemic model, this paper builds a ring of gold pollution emergency information transmission model, and analyzes characteristics of information transmission (especially the rumor spread) and how the government's information control measures influence the situation evolution. Finally, combined with “worrywarts sorrow cobalt” event, it analyzes the mass incidents of environmental pollution evolution process. Research shows that in the process of spread rumors of its own, the number of rumor-mongers monotonic increases first, reaching a maximum value, then monotone decreases and tends to zero. Besides, local governments exert effective control measures on rumors spread, which can maximum threshold to reduce the spread of rumors and prompt the situation convergence as soon as possible.