Does Population Aging Determine the Growth of HCE?—Theoretical Debates and Its Enlightenment to China’s Public Policy

Does population aging determine the growth of HCE? The answer for this question will influence the public policy directly. Even if the debates about it has spanned more than ten years, researchers haven’t reached a consensus so far. The paper takes two representative theories, the " red herring hypothesis” and " steepening”, as the clue, to make a comprehensive and systematic review on papers relating to this topic by centering on the two major subjects of age effect and longevity effect on HCE. The author concludes that the affection of population aging on HCE growth should not be underestimated and the Chinese HCE will continuously grow due to the aging problem under the country’s specific conditions. Consequently, the policy makers should make a beforehand strategic decisions on reform of the medical and public health systems, aging care service system, and long-term care insurance.