The Prediction of Carbon Peaking in the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle

Purpose/Significance This paper predicted and analyzed the prospects of carbon peaking before 2030 for the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle and its 44 cities (districts and counties), and provided suggestions for regional carbon peaking. Design/Methodology LMDI decomposition method was used to identify key factors and key areas of the carbon emissions in the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle. On this basis, scenario analysis and Monte Carlo simulation were used to simulate and calculate the evolution path and peak probability of carbon emissions of the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle and cities (districts and counties) from 2020 to 2035. Conclusions/Findings Under static simulation, carbon emissions of the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle will reach peak before 2030 only under the extremely low carbon scenario and low carbon scenario. Under dynamic simulation, the peak probability is 32.8%. 36 cities (districts and counties), including Mianyang, Suining, Meishan, etc., will reach peak before 2030 either under static or dynamic simulations; the other 8 cities (districts and counties), including Chengdu, Zigong, Luzhou, etc., are unable to reach peak under specific scenarios in static simulation. Under dynamic simulation, Chengdu, Luzhou, Yibin, and Ya’an are still unable to reach peak. The peak probabilities of Nanchong, Zigong, Deyang, and Leshan are 85.7%, 55.42%, 58.9%, and 20.4%, respectively.