Research on the Impact of Population Aging on Income Redistribution

This paper empirically studies the impact of population aging on the effectiveness of income redistribution policies. Research findings show that the ability of redistribution policies to optimize the income distribution pattern has been increasing year by year, and the income redistribution effect of transfer payments is significantly better than that of individual income tax. Benchmark regression indicates that population aging has strengthened the income redistribution effect by expanding the scale of redistribution policies. For every 1 percentage point increase in the degree of population aging, the redistribution effect increases by 0.682 percentage points. Further analysis reveals that population aging has no significant impact on the income redistribution effect of personal income tax, but it significantly enhances the income redistribution effect of transfer payments, especially the pension insurance system. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the effect of population aging is more significant in economically developed cities. However, population aging will also strengthen the role of income redistribution policies, especially policies with urban bias such as the endowment insurance system, in widening the income gap between urban and rural areas. The research results are of vital significance for the government to formulate scientific and reasonable redistribution policies and achieve common prosperity in the context of the accelerating deepening of population aging.