The Impact of Population Aging on the Development of New Quality Productivity: Theoretical Mechanisms and Empirical Evidence

Population aging is a major topic that economic and social development has to face, and developing new quality productive forces is the key to achieving high-quality development. Employing the panel data from 30 provinces 2012～2022, this article constructs an indicator system for measuring the level of new quality productivity from three dimensions: new workers, new means of labor, and new subjects of labor. It empirically analyzes the impact of population aging on the development of new quality productivity. Research indicates that: (1) the accelerating population aging has a negative impact on new quality productivity. For every 1 unit increase in the elderly dependency ratio, the level of new quality productivity will decrease by 0.473 units. This result is still valid after multiple robustness tests and endogeneity treatments. (2) The impact of population aging on the development of new quality productivity is heterogeneous, and its negative effects are mainly reflected in the Northeast, Northwest and regions with higher levels of economic development. (3) The two dimensions of new workers and new means of labor are the main channels through which population aging affect the development of new quality productivity. (4) The new quality productivity has significant positive spatial spillover effects, but population aging will have negative spatial spillover effects on the development of new quality productivity in neighboring areas. The article reveals the impact of population aging on the development of new quality productivity from both theoretical and empirical perspectives, so as to provide richer empirical evidence and decision-making references for actively responding to population aging and developing new quality productivity.