Risk-Averse Behavioral Model of Personalized Product Delivery Time under Uncertainty Condition

This paper studies the effect of the decision maker’s risk-averse behavior on the decision under uncertainty condition, uses the prospect theory to model the decision maker’s behavior, and analyzes the decision bias between the risk-averse decision maker and the complete rational decision maker. It takes the optimal delivery product time of personalized product marketing establishment as an example. Through modeling and analyzing, we find that if the marginal loss of the product coming before delivery time is larger than the marginal loss of the product coming after delivery time, then the more risk-averse decision maker is, the smaller delivery time he sets is than the optimal value of the risk neutral maker; if the marginal loss of the product coming before delivery time is equal to the marginal loss of the product coming after delivery time, no matter how risk-averse he is, the delivery time he sets is equal to the optimal value of the risk neutral maker; if the marginal loss of the product coming before delivery time is smaller than the marginal loss of the product coming after delivery time, then the more risk-averse decision maker is, the larger delivery time he sets is than the optimal value of the risk neutral maker.