On Evolution of Accident Modeling Methods Based on System

New technology is making fundamental changes in the cause of accidents and promoting the development of accident models and its modeling methods. The traditional modeling methods are not sufficient to analyze the accident in the socio-technical systems, because the accident is no longer the result of a single component failure or human error in the new environment. Based on the perspective of system analysis, this paper introduces three main new methods for system accident models, that is, the systematic method for accident modeling, the formal method and analysis of accident, and the sociological and organizational analysis method. Finally, this paper discusses and summarizes the strengths and weaknesses of modeling method, not only putting forward the analysis framework of system accident from the comprehensive perspective, but also pointing out that the theory of System of system is the future trend for modeling accident of social-technical system, and proposing the evolution trends of modeling accident.