Probabilistic Growing Mode of Scenario Evolution in Unconventionality Disaster —Exploratory Case Study of Typhoon Morakot

By using the method of exploratory case study, this paper analyzes the evolution processes of Typhoon Morakot in Zhejiang. The research results show that the process of scenario evolution is similar to the process of organism growing, and it also has the characteristic of probabilistic. Based on the case stury, a mathematical model is established, which formalizes representation of probabilistic growing mode and provides theoretical foundation for simulating and computational experiments.