Abstract: Environmental pollution mass incidents often occurring all over the country have seriously influenced the social stability. Considering the Stackberg game model between petrochemical enterprises and nearby residents, the paper builds the extensive evolutionary game model of environmental pollution mass incident. Because of the difficulty to solve the equilibrium of extensive evolutionary game, the player's mental model is considered that can simplify the solving course. Comparing the Wright Manifold evolutionary solution to the Mental Model evolutionary solution of the model, the results show that two solutions of evolutionary equilibrium can all reflect the strategy selection under the equilibrium state. However, the Mental Model evolutionary solution more closes to the fact. Lastly, based on the Dalian PX incident, the paper analyzes the two types of equilibrium outcomes of the Wright Manifold evolutionary solution to the Mental Model evolutionary solution.