姜 卉, 李 婷. 基于经验模式的非常规突发事件应急决策研究[J]. 电子科技大学学报社科版, 2012, 14(5). DOI: 1008-8105(2012)05-0033-05
引用本文: 姜 卉, 李 婷. 基于经验模式的非常规突发事件应急决策研究[J]. 电子科技大学学报社科版, 2012, 14(5). DOI: 1008-8105(2012)05-0033-05
JIANG Hui , LI Ting. Experience-Based Unconventional Emergencies Decision-Making Research[J]. Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China(SOCIAL SCIENCES EDITION), 2012, 14(5). DOI: 1008-8105(2012)05-0033-05
Citation: JIANG Hui , LI Ting. Experience-Based Unconventional Emergencies Decision-Making Research[J]. Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China(SOCIAL SCIENCES EDITION), 2012, 14(5). DOI: 1008-8105(2012)05-0033-05

基于经验模式的非常规突发事件应急决策研究

Experience-Based Unconventional Emergencies Decision-Making Research

  • 摘要: 非常规突发事件给人类带来了巨大的经济损失和人员伤亡,合理地制定非常规突发事件应急决策成为减少损失最关键的因素。但是,传统的应急决策模型由于其苛刻的假设条件,使其实际应用性得到极大置疑,而“经验”确成为制定决策的关键因素。首先,论述运用经验进行非常规突发事件应急决策的客观必然性;其次,进行了经验对应急决策“影响路径”分析;最后,基于“经验—决策”分析,提出以后进一步研究的方向

     

    Abstract: The unconventional emergencies make our human beings suffer increasingly serious economic loss and casualties. A proper decision is turned out to be the most important thing to reduce the loss and save the casualties. But traditional emergency decision-making model is not suitable for the unconventional emergencies. In this paper, the application of experience to unconventional emergency decision-making is discussed. Firstly, the existence and importance of the application of experience to unconventional emergency decision-making are highlighted according to some important conclusions of intuitive decision-making theory and naturalistic decision-making theory. Secondly, through analyzing how “experience” can affect “emergency decision making”, the advantages of applying “experience” to “unconventional emergency decision-making” are illustrated. Lastly, from the perspective of “experience-research”, several possible further research topics are put forward.

     

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