杨宝臣, 苏云鹏. SHIBOR市场利率期限结构实证研究[J]. 电子科技大学学报社科版, 2010, 12(5). DOI: 1008-8105(2010)05-0039-07
引用本文: 杨宝臣, 苏云鹏. SHIBOR市场利率期限结构实证研究[J]. 电子科技大学学报社科版, 2010, 12(5). DOI: 1008-8105(2010)05-0039-07
YANG Bao-chen, SU Yun-peng. An Empirical Research on the Term Structure of SHIBOR[J]. Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China(SOCIAL SCIENCES EDITION), 2010, 12(5). DOI: 1008-8105(2010)05-0039-07
Citation: YANG Bao-chen, SU Yun-peng. An Empirical Research on the Term Structure of SHIBOR[J]. Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China(SOCIAL SCIENCES EDITION), 2010, 12(5). DOI: 1008-8105(2010)05-0039-07

SHIBOR市场利率期限结构实证研究

An Empirical Research on the Term Structure of SHIBOR

  • 摘要: 基于2006年10月8日~2008年10月9日间上海银行间同业拆放利率市场的日数据,利用单位根和协整检验对预期理论对于利率期限结构不同部分的适用性差异进行了研究,发现上海银行间同业拆放利率系统存在两个随机趋势,即短端利率的波动趋势和长端利率的线性漂移趋势,因此预期理论对于上海银行间同业拆放利率市场的利率期限结构整体上是不适用的,但是对于期限结构的短端和长端则分别适用。在此基础上,分别对短端利率和长端利率两个子系统建立了误差修正模型以刻画其动态特性,发现货币政策的效应沿上海银行间同业拆放利率期限结构衰减,从而会造成收益率曲线产生非平行变动,甚至扭曲。此外,还发现隔夜拆借利率的动态特性表现出背离长期均衡关系的趋势

     

    Abstract: An empirical research is made on the applicability of the expectation hypothesis (EH) to different parts of the term structure of SHIBOR, indicating that EH is not applicable to the whole yield curve of SHIBOR, but works on the short and long parts respectively. Thus, VEC models are established to capture the dynamics of the short and long interest rate systems respectively, finding that the effect of the monetary policy tends to decline along the term structure of SHIBOR and the overnight rate displays an inclination to deviate from the long run equilibrium

     

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