李亚青. 人口老龄化是否决定了医疗卫生支出增长?—理论争鸣和中国启示[J]. 电子科技大学学报社科版, 2017, 19(1): 20-28. DOI: 10.14071/j.1008-8105(2017)01-0020-09
引用本文: 李亚青. 人口老龄化是否决定了医疗卫生支出增长?—理论争鸣和中国启示[J]. 电子科技大学学报社科版, 2017, 19(1): 20-28. DOI: 10.14071/j.1008-8105(2017)01-0020-09
LI Ya-qing. Does Population Aging Determine the Growth of HCE?—Theoretical Debates and Its Enlightenment to China’s Public Policy[J]. Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China(SOCIAL SCIENCES EDITION), 2017, 19(1): 20-28. DOI: 10.14071/j.1008-8105(2017)01-0020-09
Citation: LI Ya-qing. Does Population Aging Determine the Growth of HCE?—Theoretical Debates and Its Enlightenment to China’s Public Policy[J]. Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China(SOCIAL SCIENCES EDITION), 2017, 19(1): 20-28. DOI: 10.14071/j.1008-8105(2017)01-0020-09

人口老龄化是否决定了医疗卫生支出增长?—理论争鸣和中国启示

Does Population Aging Determine the Growth of HCE?—Theoretical Debates and Its Enlightenment to China’s Public Policy

  • 摘要: 人口老龄化是否决定了医疗卫生支出增长?这一问题的回答直接关系到养老、医疗等相关公共政策走向。尽管国外学术界对这一问题的争论已长达十余年,但至今未能达成共识。文章以“红鲱鱼”假说和“陡升曲线”假说两大代表性理论为线索,将现有文献归纳为“年龄对医疗卫生支出的影响”和“预期寿命延长对医疗卫生支出的影响”两大理论主题进行了全面梳理和分析。研究发现,尽管理论分歧很大,但人口老龄化对医疗卫生支出的影响不可小觑。我国的特殊国情决定了老龄化很可能导致医疗卫生支出持续不断地增长,需要决策者们未雨绸缪,在医疗卫生体制改革、老年护理服务体系和长期护理保险制度等公共政策领域提前作出战略安排。

     

    Abstract: Does population aging determine the growth of HCE? The answer for this question will influence the public policy directly. Even if the debates about it has spanned more than ten years, researchers haven’t reached a consensus so far. The paper takes two representative theories, the " red herring hypothesis” and " steepening”, as the clue, to make a comprehensive and systematic review on papers relating to this topic by centering on the two major subjects of age effect and longevity effect on HCE. The author concludes that the affection of population aging on HCE growth should not be underestimated and the Chinese HCE will continuously grow due to the aging problem under the country’s specific conditions. Consequently, the policy makers should make a beforehand strategic decisions on reform of the medical and public health systems, aging care service system, and long-term care insurance.

     

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