邹辉文, 朱丽娟. 基于R-Vine Copula模型的国际原油与国际股市间的风险传染效应研究[J]. 电子科技大学学报社科版, 2021, 23(4): 106-112. DOI: 10.14071/j.1008-8105(2020)-4017
引用本文: 邹辉文, 朱丽娟. 基于R-Vine Copula模型的国际原油与国际股市间的风险传染效应研究[J]. 电子科技大学学报社科版, 2021, 23(4): 106-112. DOI: 10.14071/j.1008-8105(2020)-4017
ZOU Hui-wen, ZHU Li-juan. Study on the Risk Contagion Effect Between International Crude Oil Market and International Stock Market——Based on the R-Vine Copula Model[J]. Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China(SOCIAL SCIENCES EDITION), 2021, 23(4): 106-112. DOI: 10.14071/j.1008-8105(2020)-4017
Citation: ZOU Hui-wen, ZHU Li-juan. Study on the Risk Contagion Effect Between International Crude Oil Market and International Stock Market——Based on the R-Vine Copula Model[J]. Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China(SOCIAL SCIENCES EDITION), 2021, 23(4): 106-112. DOI: 10.14071/j.1008-8105(2020)-4017

基于R-Vine Copula模型的国际原油与国际股市间的风险传染效应研究

Study on the Risk Contagion Effect Between International Crude Oil Market and International Stock MarketBased on the R-Vine Copula Model

  • 摘要:
    目的/意义为捕捉国际原油与国际股市之间的整体联动关系,判断油价暴跌期间的市场走向,提高投资者的能源意识和国家的能源安全及金融安全管理水平。
    设计/方法借助R-Vine Copula模型对国际原油及国际股市之间的复杂相依结构进行刻画。
    结论/发现研究表明在油价暴跌期间,印度、韩国和俄罗斯等国家最先受到波及。此外,受油价波动影响,不同国家股市之间存在不同程度的风险外溢情况,使得原油波动的影响范围进一步扩大。相较于原油进口国,油价波动对原油出口国的冲击会更强一些。

     

    Abstract: Purpose/Significance This paper is aimed to explore the overall linkage relations between the international crude oil market and the international stock market, speculate the market trend during the crude oil price slump, and further improve investors’ energy awareness and national management of energy security and financial security. Design/Methodology R-Vine Copula model is used to describe the complex dependence structure between the international crude oil market and the international stock market in this paper. Conclusions/Findings The results suggest that India, South Korea and Russia, etc are firstly influenced by the oil price slump. In addition, due to the impact of oil price fluctuations, there are different degrees of risk spillover among stock markets of different countries, which leads to further expansion of the influence of crude oil fluctuations. Finally, the study finds that the influence of oil price fluctuations on oil-exporting countries is stronger than that on oil-importing countries.

     

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