王旭坪, 杨相英, 樊双蛟, 阮俊虎. 非常规突发事件情景构建与推演方法体系研究[J]. 电子科技大学学报社科版, 2013, 15(1).
引用本文: 王旭坪, 杨相英, 樊双蛟, 阮俊虎. 非常规突发事件情景构建与推演方法体系研究[J]. 电子科技大学学报社科版, 2013, 15(1).
WANG Xu-ping, YANG Xiang-ying, FAN Shuang-jiao , RUAN Jun-hu. A Methodology of Scenario Construction and Deduction of Unconventional Emergency[J]. Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China(SOCIAL SCIENCES EDITION), 2013, 15(1).
Citation: WANG Xu-ping, YANG Xiang-ying, FAN Shuang-jiao , RUAN Jun-hu. A Methodology of Scenario Construction and Deduction of Unconventional Emergency[J]. Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China(SOCIAL SCIENCES EDITION), 2013, 15(1).

非常规突发事件情景构建与推演方法体系研究

A Methodology of Scenario Construction and Deduction of Unconventional Emergency

  • 摘要: 非常规突发事件情景构建和推演是实现“情景-应对”型应急管理模式的关键问题之一。分析突发事件应急管理特点及研究现状基础上,构建了非常规突发事件情景构建与推演方法体系,具体包括关键要素及其作用机理提取与表示、多源信息融合下的应急情景链构建、面向“情景-应对”的应急情景推演和情景推演结果评判与应对实效评估四个部分。该方法体系及划分有助于合理展开“情景-应对”型应急管理关键问题的研究,可以促进“情景-应对”型应急管理模式在应急管理实践中的实现,为政府部门制定应急决策提供一定的决策支持

     

    Abstract: Scenario construction and deduction of unconventional emergencies is one of the key issues in the “Scenario-Response” type emergency management model. After analyzing the characteristics of emergency management and the extant related studies, we build a methodology of scenario construction and deduction for emergencies, which includes four parts: the extraction and representation methods of the key emergency elements and the mechanisms among the elements; scenario construction methods under multi-source information fusion, scenario deduction methods based on “Scenario-Response”, and the assessment methods of scenario deduction results and actual effects. The proposed system is beneficial to solve the key issues of “Scenario-Response” emergency management, which can promote the implementation of “Scenario-Response” methodology in emergency management practice and improve the decision support for governments’ responses to unconventional emergencies.

     

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