“十五五”时期中国人工智能产业的战略矛盾与治理路径

Strategic Contradictions and Governance Pathways of China’s Artificial Intelligence Industry During the 15th Five-Year Plan Period

  • 摘要: 本文将中国人工智能产业置于“高质量发展”与“统筹发展和安全”两项“十五五”时期经济社会发展必须遵循的原则下,深入剖析其面临的三大战略矛盾。第一,新型举国体制推动高水平科技自立自强的战略动员,与产业在算力、底层软件生态与知识网络上形成的全球技术体系“嵌入性依赖”之间的外部张力;第二,国家战略引领与资源统筹的“有为政府”逻辑,与需求发现、资源配置与创新激励所依赖的“有效市场”机制之间的内部张力,并由此诱发资源配置的挤出效应与创新路径依赖风险;第三,人工智能作为新质生产力核心引擎的加速扩散需求,与“发展—安全”一体化底线要求下治理体系相对滞后的前沿张力,集中体现为创新寒蝉效应与风险滞后效应之间的制度权衡难题。围绕上述矛盾,本文提出战略性治理路径,旨在为“十五五”时期人工智能产业治理的制度设计与决策提供经验参考。

     

    Abstract: At present, China’s artificial intelligence (AI) industry has moved beyond an initial stage characterized primarily by scale expansion and has entered a new phase in which high-quality development has become the central objective and deep structural contradictions are increasingly salient. Grounded in the guiding principles articulated at the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, this paper situates China’s AI industry within the two fundamental principles that must guide economic and social development during the 15th Five-Year Plan period—namely, high-quality development and the coordinated advancement of development and security—and systematically examines three major strategic contradictions confronting the industry. First, there exists an external tension between the strategic mobilization of the new nationwide system to advance high-level technological self-reliance and self-strengthening, and the industry’s embedded dependence on the global technology system in areas such as computing power, foundational software ecosystems, and knowledge networks. Second, there is an internal tension between the logic of an “effective government,” characterized by national strategic guidance and resource coordination, and the mechanisms of an “efficient market,” which underpin demand discovery, resource allocation, and innovation incentives—giving rise to risks such as crowding-out effects in resource allocation and path dependence in innovation trajectories. Third, a frontier-level tension has emerged between the accelerating diffusion of AI as a core engine of new-quality productive forces and the relative lag of governance systems under the baseline requirement of integrating development and security, a tension that is manifested in the institutional trade-off between chilling effects on innovation and lag effects in risk governance. In response to these contradictions, this paper proposes a set of strategic governance pathways, with the aim of providing analytical reference for institutional design and policymaking in the governance of China’s AI industry during the 15th Five-Year Plan period.

     

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