人工智能与工业机器人对多维度高质量就业影响的研究

The Impact of Artificial Intelligence and Industrial Robots on Multidimensional High-Quality Employment

  • 摘要: 统筹技术升级与促进高质量充分就业是实现经济现代化的核心议题。将人工智能与工业机器人两种技术冲击纳入统一框架,利用2016—2022年中国家庭追踪调查CFPS数据与技术暴露度测度指标,采用双向固定效应模型实证检验两类技术冲击对劳动者多维高质量就业的影响与传导渠道。研究发现:第一,两类技术冲击对就业质量的影响方向存在差异。人工智能暴露度显著提升劳动者多维高质量就业水平,工业机器人暴露度显著降低劳动者多维高质量就业水平。第二,机制检验表明,人工智能通过推动岗位管理属性重构和降低用工灵活化改善就业质量;工业机器人未通过岗位管理属性重构影响就业质量,虽然用工灵活化路径形成显著间接效应,但该间接效应为正,说明这一渠道对工业机器人负向影响产生部分抵消,而不是放大其负向冲击。数字人力资本再投资没有形成显著中介作用,也没有放大人工智能的正向影响,面对工业机器人冲击时也未表现出缓冲作用。第三,异质性分析发现,人工智能对低人力资本劳动者和老一代劳动者的就业质量提升更明显,在体制外部门的促进作用更强;工业机器人对女性、高人力资本劳动者和新生代劳动者的就业质量造成更大冲击。研究表明,政策制定应关注技术替代带来的岗位转换、技能不匹配和劳动者保障不足问题,建立更有针对性的技能转岗培训体系,完善适应非正规就业和岗位转换过程的社会保障制度,引导企业在引入智能技术时优化岗位安排,推动技术升级和劳动者就业质量改善相协调。

     

    Abstract: Coordinating technological upgrading with the promotion of high-quality full employment is a central issue in economic modernization. This paper incorporates artificial intelligence and industrial robots into a unified analytical framework. Using data from the China Family Panel Studies from 2016 to 2022 and occupation-level measures of technology exposure, it estimates the effects of these two technological shocks on workers’ multidimensional high-quality employment with a two-way fixed effects model.The results show that the two technologies have different effects on employment quality. Exposure to artificial intelligence significantly improves workers’ multidimensional high-quality employment, while exposure to industrial robots significantly reduces it. Mechanism tests indicate that artificial intelligence improves employment quality by reshaping job responsibilities toward managerial tasks and reducing labor-market informalization. Industrial robots do not affect employment quality through managerial task restructuring. Although the informal employment channel generates a significant indirect effect, this effect is positive, suggesting that it partly offsets rather than amplifies the negative effect of industrial robots. Digital human capital reinvestment does not serve as a significant mediating channel. It neither strengthens the positive effect of artificial intelligence nor buffers the negative effect of industrial robots.Heterogeneity analysis shows that artificial intelligence generates larger employment-quality gains for workers with lower human capital, older workers, and workers in non-state sectors. Industrial robots impose larger employment-quality losses on women, workers with higher human capital, and younger workers. These findings suggest that policy should focus on job transitions, skill mismatch, and gaps in worker protection caused by technological substitution. Governments should build targeted reskilling programs, improve social security arrangements for informal employment and job transitions, and guide firms to adjust workplace organization when adopting intelligent technologies, so as to align technological upgrading with improvements in workers’ employment quality.

     

/

返回文章
返回