Abstract:
Based on the evaluation index system of population security among provinces in China, this article makes dynamic comprehensive evaluation of population security on 31 provinces between 2005 and 2008 through GCPA model and Moran’s I technique. It also makes tentative analysis on effect of spatial agglomeration. The result indicates that although the gap of population security among different provinces is decreasing, there are still significant discrepancies in them and the whole development is conspicuously disproportional. There is evidence that the layout of population security indices has obvious character of agglomeration and spatial autocorrelation. Meanwhile, there is explicit sign of path dependence in their space time evolution and the center-periphery pattern has been formed stably.