我国省域人口安全水平的现状评价 与空间相关性分析 ——基于GCPA模型和Moran’s I统计量

Evaluation of Population Security and Research of Spatial Agglomeration Effect in Chinese Provinces ——Based on GCPA Model and Moran’s I

  • 摘要: 在建立人口安全水平评价指标体系的基础上,通过运用GPCA模型和基于Moran’s I 统计量的全域空间关联的分析方法,对我国31个省域2005~2008年的人口安全水平现状及其空间相关性进行了动态综合评价。结果表明,近年来各地区之间的发展差距虽趋于缩小,但仍存在显著差异,不均衡发展的态势十分突出,且在空间分布上存在显著的自相关现象和集聚效应,省域人口安全状况的演化呈现出高度的空间稳定性

     

    Abstract: Based on the evaluation index system of population security among provinces in China, this article makes dynamic comprehensive evaluation of population security on 31 provinces between 2005 and 2008 through GCPA model and Moran’s I technique. It also makes tentative analysis on effect of spatial agglomeration. The result indicates that although the gap of population security among different provinces is decreasing, there are still significant discrepancies in them and the whole development is conspicuously disproportional. There is evidence that the layout of population security indices has obvious character of agglomeration and spatial autocorrelation. Meanwhile, there is explicit sign of path dependence in their space time evolution and the center-periphery pattern has been formed stably.

     

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