非常规突发事件演化机理研究: 以化工事故引发的群体性事件为例

Research on Evolutionary Mechanism of Unconventional Emergency: The Case Study of Dangerous Chemical Accidents

  • 摘要: 为了完善非常规突发事件演化机理,提高对突发事件事前的防范、事中的控制和事后的救援能力。从突变理论的尖点突变模型出发,在非常规突发事件已有的四种演化模式基础上,推导出非常规突发事件演化的另一种新模式——突变。并将其应用到由危险化学品事故演变的大规模群体性事件中,拓展了非常规突发事件演化模式,完善了非常规突发事件演化机理,为突发事件的预警系统提供技术支撑。

     

    Abstract: In order to study the unconventional emergency evolution mechanism, improve the emergency prevention, control and rescue capability, based on the original four evolutionary patterns, this paper adopts the cusp catastrophe model of catastrophe theory to analyze unconventional emergency events. With the case study of the mass events result from the dangerous chemical accidents in Dalian, it expands the evolutionary patterns of unconventional emergency events and improves the unconventional emergencies evolutionary mechanism. It provides technical supports for the emergency warning system.

     

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