非常规突发事件应急管理中的情景及 情景-应对理论综述研究

Review on the Scenario and Scenario-Response Theory for Unconventional Emergency Management

  • 摘要: 近年来,非常规突发事件频发,由于其自身具有不可预测性、复杂性和小概率事件等特点,常规的“预测-应对”模式已经难以有效地应对非常规突发事件,“情景-应对”是应对非常规突发事件的基本范式,基于此,对情景及情景-应对理论的研究已成为非常规突发事件应急管理领域中的研究热点,通过对现有文献的梳理,展开综述研究,为未来非常规突发事件应急管理研究奠定了基础。

     

    Abstract: In recent years, unconventional emergencies occur frequently. Due to its characteristics of unpredictability, complexity, and small probability events, conventional "Prediction - response" model has been difficult to effectively deal with unconventional emergencies. "scenario - response" is a basic paradigm to deal with unconventional emergencies. Based on this background, research on scenario and scenario-response theory of unconventional emergencies has become a hot point in the areas of emergency management. Review on present literatures can sort out the direction of future research and it plays a positive role in promoting the work in unconventional emergency management.

     

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