财政支农、农业投资对农业GDP的贡献 ——基于多变量VAR模型

Contributions of the Public Financial Support and Agriculture Investment to the Agriculture’s GDP —Based on VAR Model

  • 摘要: 根据我国1981~2009年的历史数据,运用VAR模型对我国财政支农、农业贷款、农业投资与农业经济增长的关系进行实证分析,结果表明,农业贷款不是农业GDP的Granger原因,而财政支农、农业投资是农业GDP的Granger原因。财政支农、农业投资与农业GDP之间存在着长期交互关系。经过脉冲响应和方差分解显示:财政支农增长率和农业投资对农业GDP的平均贡献率分别为4%和5%左右,具有滞后性和持续性,并依据以上结论提出相应的政策建议。

     

    Abstract: Based on Granger causality tests of multivariable VAR model, influence of financial development to agricultural economic growth of China is investigated using sample datum from 1981 to 2009. The results indicate that the cause for the agriculture’s GDP Granger is not the agricultural loan, but the public financial support to agriculture and the agriculture investment. At the same time, the results of impulse response function and variance decomposition show that the average contribution rates of the public financial support and the agriculture investment to the agriculture’s GDP are 4% and 5%, respectively.

     

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